The Middle East

Orhan Kilercioğlu for TDN

Wednesday, September 6, 2006

Since the end of Ottoman control, the energy-rich Middle East has always been involved in some kind of trouble. Blood and tears continue to dominate the region. Although the area seemed to be in constant chaos before the dissolution of the Soviet state, even those days seem like the good old ones today.
After the founding of the Israeli state in 1948, the lack of any dialogue between the Israel and Arab worlds, the stances adopted by some countries against Israel, and religious, political and economic factors have resulted in what we see today. Iran and Syria in particular exhibited a very hostile attitude towards Israel and secretly channeled money and support to certain groups that fought the Jewish state. These countries, which refrained from directly confronting Israel, both gained time and utilized opportunities to strengthen their regional standing.
If we ignore the huge destruction Israel wrought on Lebanese infrastructure, we can easily say they failed to achieve their objectives in the recent offensive. Israel suffered serious losses, and for the first time since 1967 came face-to-face with serious resistance.
It is obvious that things are changing in the region. With the gradual deployment of U.N. troops in southern Lebanon, Israeli forces have begun to pull out. This shows Israel does not want to escalate things any further and is trying to find enough time to heal its wounds.
We have also seen that the number of countries regarding Israel as the enemy has increased since the start of the latest offensive. The huge human tragedy that Israel caused in Lebanon played a huge part in this change.
On the other hand, the support given to Hezbollah by some countries has caused serious problems for Israel.
One must also keep in mind the fact that despite its promise to bring democracy and peace to the country, the United States has up until now failed to stabilize Iraq.
The United States seems determined not to pull its troops out of Iraq until it has achieved peace in the country. Meanwhile, public order is plummeting with every passing day. All signs point to a deepening civil war in Iraq. If this happens, the entire region may be pulled into this quagmire.
Iran and Syria seem to be enjoying the current troubles in the region, believing them to be in their interest. Iran, which recently announced the fact that it has no intention of halting its nuclear program, seems to be overconfident. Why is it so confident? It is the fourth largest oil exporter in the world. It believes the United Nations cannot afford to impose serious trade restrictions. The policies of Russia and China, both permanent U.N. Security Council members, confirm this.
Additionally, no one should view Iran as just another Iraq. The United States and the West in general know this. The United States is aware of how much things may escalate if a mistake is made.
All signs point to the perception that the region is on the eve of a huge crisis. Compared to the past the dangers Israel faces have increased considerably. It needs to produce clever and persuasive policies to win over the international community.
As usual, Turkey is trying its best to remain isolated from all the tragedy happening around it.
In conclusion, the huge crisis in the Middle East constitutes a clear and present danger. Hate, ambition and interests need to be put aside for our own good.