Turkey becoming isolated in Europe

Turkish Daily News by Mehmet Ali Birand

Friday, June 16, 2006

Developments in Europe show that Turkey’s job is becoming much harder; however, Ankara is failing to approach this state of affairs calmly. It is constantly delaying initiatives that will save it from becoming isolated.
Developments in Europe show that Turkey's job is becoming much harder; however, Ankara is failing to approach this state of affairs calmly. It is constantly delaying initiatives that will save it from being alone.
This is making our job that much harder.
Developments in Europe are very unfavorable. Some are caused by matters out of our hands, but some are based on our attitude. In this article I will try to show the way Turkey is perceived from Europe. Tomorrow's article will be on how we will rescue ourselves from this vicious circle.

Enlargement phobia not abating:
The enlargement phobia that has been dominating the European public is showing no sign of letting up. Just the opposite, it seems to becoming more pronounced. The shock of admitting 10 countries is still reverberating. The European public, which was alienated from the European Union for having been kept out of the decision-making process, has suddenly woken up. It became clear that the latest enlargement would cause much discomfort, and consequently it rebelled. This was a very unfortunate consequence. Turkey came to symbolize what was wrong with the enlargement process. As the public opposition to enlargement grew, so did the opposition to Turkey. While Turkey had nothing to do with it, it became the victim of the enlargement backlash. According to the latest polls in the EU, opposition to Turkey's membership has risen to around 55 percent.

Old friends nowhere to be seen:
Turkey's relations with the EU have always been shaped by the influence of the top political elite of Europe. Since the 1960s, the European public has always had an unfavorable outlook on relations with Turkey. They tried to resist but had no say and as a result, the decisions that guided Turkish-EU relations were always made by those who governed the EU.
All the decisions taken since 1995, when a new period was ushered in in Turkish-EU relations, were taken by the political elite. Those who led this period were British Prime Minister Tony Blair, French President Jacques Chirac, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and former Italian President Silvio Berlusconi. If it wasn't for these four individuals, Turkey could not have started its full membership negotiations on Oct. 3, 2005.
However, none of them are in the limelight these days. Schroeder and Berlusconi lost the elections, while Blair and Chirac lost most of their power. In other words, Turkey suddenly lost the support of the elite it had counted on for so many years. Just at a time when the backlash was occurring, Turkey lost its shield.

The privileged partnership idea:
The idea that Turkey should be given privileged partnership instead of actual membership is steadily gaining ground. This idea, initially backed by Germany, is slowly being talked about in other governments and parliaments. Such an idea being mentioned as if it were ordinary is not a good sign. The debates on this could grow, and one day we may realize that full membership is nowhere to be seen and that we are offered privileged partnership. Turkey needs to take a very clear stance. If one day a choice needs to be made between privileged partnership and full membership, Turkey needs to say that that decision will be made by Ankara.

A new criterion: Absorption capacity:
It may not be viewed as a new criterion but the absorption capacity of the EU is an often-talked-about matter among European circles. It was mentioned at the EU summit on Dec. 17, 2004. However, debates over it have become very popular in recent weeks. We should never forget that the main audience for this criterion is the EU public. Europe and especially France is telling its public: “Don't worry. If the economy worsens, we'll intervene.” Still, it can be perceived as an additional obstacle.

Cyprus:
Cyprus is the most important trump card of those who want to slow down or delay negotiations with Turkey. None of these countries have any intention of resolving the Cyprus issue. For them, Cyprus is a stick they can use in their dealings with Turkey. It is a small toy people use to prevent Turkey from proceeding. It will continue to be a headache until the end of the negotiations.
This is the general outlook.
Unfortunately, the scene Turkey is confronting is not encouraging; however, it is not hopeless.
If Turkey works hard, it can still save itself from this vicious circle.
How?
Let's meet here again tomorrow.